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Morain

11/17/22

11/17/2022

Iowa is a red state. Period.

The Republican victories in the state last week rivaled the GOP’s dominance in Iowa back in the years following the Civil War, when most Iowans connected Democrats to the Southern rebellion.

Both houses of the Iowa legislature now have Republican majorities of about two to one, and Republicans now fill all the elected positions in the executive branch (with the possible exception of the state auditor position, which remains undecided as of this writing). All four U.S. representatives and both U.S. senators from Iowa are Republican.

Greene County mirrors the state. All five county supervisors are Republican, as are all the elected courthouse officials except the Democratic county recorder, who won election unopposed, and the county attorney, a Libertarian who also faced no opposition. In contested races, about five Greene County voters went for Republicans for every three who voted Democratic.

Democrats elsewhere can try to blame gerrymandering and election shenanigans for the dominance of Republicans in their states. That’s not the case in Iowa. Although Republicans have made Iowa voting procedures somewhat more restrictive, our legislative and congressional districts are not gerrymandered, and our elections are squeaky clean.

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Republicans apparently have figured it out. Democrats face the challenge of doing likewise.

For several years now I’ve had no party affiliation. I voted for candidates of both parties on November 8. In the days following the election I’ve mulled over why I did so. I’ve concluded that the candidates who won my vote were those with whom I was most comfortable, those who seemed closer to my interests and my identity.

I think Iowa, and Greene County, went Republican for the same reason. More voters identified with Kim Reynolds for governor than with Deidre DeJear. They felt more comfortable with Chuck Grassley for U.S. senator than with Michael Franken. And once they leaned Republican at the top of the ticket, it was easier to continue to vote GOP on down the ballot.

Incumbency of course played a large role. Reynolds and Grassley were familiar officials; DeJear and Franken were not. It’s easier to mark your ballot for known quantities than for newcomers.

That, however, doesn’t explain the defeat of a pair of 40-year incumbent Democrats—attorney general Tom Miller and state treasurer Michael Fitzgerald. They, more likely, were collateral damage, ousted by the big Red Wave that swamped Iowa. Their loss margins were much narrower than those of newcomers DeJear and Franken.

Comparing voters’ favorite candidates with their policy opinions is enlightening. Opinion polls for several years have found that most Iowans favor abortion choice, along with some gun control policies, and dedication of public tax dollars to public schools. 

Yet those same voters elected Republicans on November 8, most of whom oppose those policies. Why is that?

It seems pretty clear that for most Iowa voters, comfort with Republican candidates, simply as people, outweighed disagreement with their positions on the issues.

National issues, of course, played a part as well. Inflation, border control, and increasing crime worked against Democratic candidates, and Republicans hammered away at those conditions. 

But national issues by themselves can’t explain the GOP sweep in Iowa. Democrats nationally consider the 2022 election as an unusual victory, with the U.S. Senate remaining in Democratic control and the U.S. House a tossup as of this writing. Usually the party out of power—in this case the Republican Party—gains a significant number of seats in the midterm elections for Congress. That certainly didn’t happen in this election.

In the next weeks and months Democrats in Iowa will search their respective and collective souls to determine how to improve their chances. It’s a tough challenge. The potential Democratic candidate bench in Iowa is thin, and burgeoning Republican incumbency will add to Democratic problems in 2024.

For starters, it will probably take a stronger Democratic ground game in the future. More social media and mailing messages tailored to individual voters. More door-knocking. Higher visibility of potential candidates. Political operatives with more expertise and creativity. 

In order to overcome the advantage of GOP incumbency, the key to Democratic success appears to me to be how the party handles Republican legislative goals. 

Iowa’s Republican-dominated legislature has already approved a proposed amendment to the Iowa Constitution saying that it does not guarantee the right to abortion. If the legislature in the coming session approves the same proposed amendment, as is almost certain, then the measure will go to a statewide referendum. How will Democrats use the dominant pro-choice leanings of Iowans when that time comes?

Governor Reynolds appears determined to tap public dollars for private schools. A bill this year in the legislature that sought to commit $55 million to that purpose failed, but the governor says she will push it again in 2023. There’s no reason to think that if it’s successful, the $75 million will remain at that level in future years. How will Democrats turn that effort to their advantage?

Finally, tax cuts are Ground Zero for Republicans. The GOP emphasizes what income tax cuts do for middle-class Iowans, but by far the biggest benefits from this year’s massive Iowa tax cut redound to the well-to-do. The state government projects that in five years, Iowa’s annual state revenues will decline by $1.9 billion. How will Democrats hold Republican feet to the fire when state appropriations are slashed because of the cuts?

Right now, the control of Iowa’s government is the Republicans Party’s to lose—but only if Democrats can offer more viable options to Iowa voters. That will require candidates with whom Iowans come to feel comfortable, and messaging that speaks to voters’ needs and desires and experience. It’s a big task. ♦

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