08/21/25

8/21/2025

American pundits are prone to designate their immediate time period, whenever it happens to be, as a “turning point.” When the political situation balances on a knife’s edge, as it does these days, every event becomes another one of those in media reports.

But this month may actually be a turning point, at least in international affairs.

The Israel-Hamas war, in its inexorable devastation of Palestinian Gaza, is a crucial situation, especially if you happen to be Palestinian. However, it’s more of a slow crush than one significant event. The fatal effect is just as critical, but it’s happening over weeks and months. Its outcome doesn’t hinge on one particular conclave of leaders who meet to decide its course.

The Ukraine-Russia War is different. This week may determine whether the 80-year postwar Western alliance of Europe and the United States continues unbroken.

U.S. President Donald Trump appears bent on ending the fighting in eastern Ukraine, where Russian military aggression grinds on after 3 1/2 years of invasion. The United States and the European Union, up until Trump, had spoken with one voice about the sovereignty and inviolability of European nations and their national borders.

Trump’s orientation, by all indications, is now different. He appears willing to acquiesce in Russian annexation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine in return for “peace,” which he defines as the absence of war. 

Ukraine’s definition of peace is different from Trump’s. For Ukraine,  personified in President Volodymyr Zelensky, peace means restoration of Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders, retreat of the enemy’s forces back into Mother Russia, and a guarantee that Russia will refrain from future military incursions into Ukrainian territory.

America until Trump’s presidency shared Zelensky’s vision. And the European Union still does. That’s what makes this week such a fraught turning point: the potential divorce of the United States and Western Europe over international policy.

Zelensky visited Trump at the White House this past Monday to discuss the war and a potential peace. But unlike last February, he did not come alone. He was joined at the White House, in a demonstration of solidarity, by the presidents or premiers of France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Finland, the European Commission, and NATO. It was an unusually high powered get-together of the West’s top leadership, and it showed the importance that Western Europe places on mutual defense and the independence and completeness of Ukraine.

Western Europe appears determined to continue its military and economic support of Ukraine’s defense. The European Union nations, despite Trump’s claims to the contrary, have contributed more to Ukraine in that regard than has the United States. It would be of very great help to Ukraine if America’s weaponry and other support could continue in the defense effort, but Europe appears ready and able to go it alone should Trump curtail or cut off U.S. aid.

Trump this summer has publicly threatened Putin several times with economic retaliation if Russia continued its air and ground attacks on Ukraine. Each time he’s failed to follow through. Putin has forged ahead with his war machine, ignoring both carrots and sticks from the West.

There’s a powerful weapon languishing in the U.S. Senate that so far has not been deployed: The Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025. Introduced in April by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, joined by Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, the bill would give Trump authority to impose sky-high 500 percent tariffs on imports into the U.S. from any nation that buys oil, gas, petroleum products, or uranium from Russia.

The “secondary sanctions” would deliver a devastating gut punch to Russia’s economy, which survives economically on its petroleum-related exports. India and China are major buyers of Russian oil and gas. 

The bill would kick in when Trump decides that Russia is not committed to a cease-fire in Ukraine. It also includes financial sanctions against certain Russian leaders and corporations.

The Graham-Blumenthal bill, which now has some 85 Senate sponsors of both parties, was referred to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, where it now resides. There is also a companion bill in the House that similarly has over 80 signatories.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune and House Speaker Michael Johnson this summer decided to let Trump take the lead in persuading Putin to agree to a ceasefire before bringing the bill to the floor in Congress. That didn’t happen before Congress adjourned for its summer recess. So any congressional consideration of the bill, if it is to take place, has to wait until the recess is over after Labor Day in early September.

That’s a long time, given current diplomatic conditions. Top-level negotiations among the involved heads of state, such as this past Monday’s White House meeting, may render moot the Graham-Blumenthal bill. 

But if U.S. determination to rescue Ukraine is abandoned or severely curtailed, Western Europe may decide to continue aid on its own. If so, Trump would find himself and the nation he leads in a squeeze. Europe, for example, may decide that Ukraine should not have to cede territory to Russia in return for a Russian halt in the fighting, something that Russia demands and that Trump apparently agrees has to happen. 

That situation would find Trump in agreement with Putin and at odds with Western Europe. Ukraine would decide whether to continue the fight with Europe’s help, abandoning its hope for support from America. 

It’s hard to imagine that Congress, and the American people, would be able to stomach that, after many decades of proudly leading the charge against military aggressors around the world. ♦