Everyone’s here: Harkin, King, Brennan, Vilsack and even Deace

The two leading candidates for Secretary of Agriculture in an Obama administration, according to one handicapper of Cabinet prospects on the Internet, are: “1. Who Gives a Shit? 2. Tom Vilsack.” Vilsack should win that one. Skinny isn’t sure what “Who Gives” has going, but Skinny does hear that Vilsack has a real chance for the job even though he had a national leadership role in the Hillary Clinton effort. Here’s why the former Iowa governor could end up in the Cabinet: First, he’s close to David Axelrod, who was Obama’s campaign strategist; second, he’s strongly supported by Tom Harkin, who chairs the Senate Agriculture Committee and who Obama wouldn’t want to piss off early in the game; third, he’s probably also supported by Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley, who would just as soon have Vilsack out of the state — and out of the running — when Grassley is up for re-election in two years. Fourth, he’s from Iowa, the state everyone thinks of when the word “agriculture” is mentioned. Fifth, though he’s neither a farmer nor an ag scientist, he knows a lot about the subject. Sixth, there’s not a lot of competition. “Who Gives a Shit” wouldn’t look good on a nameplate in the Cabinet room.

So Vilsack probably was one winner Tuesday when Barack Obama swept Iowa and the nation. Other winners in Iowa: Tom Harkin, Chet Culver, Scott Brennan, Tom Miller, Steve King, Ann Selzer and the Iowa caucuses. The big losers: Chris Rants, Stew Iverson, the local TV stations and Republican moderates. That’s what political junkies tell Skinny. So if you care. …

Culver is a winner not because his party increased its control of the Legislature or captured the White House, though it did both. Rather, he came out on top because the election and its aftermath have strengthened the far right’s grip on the Republican Party in the state. That means they’ll come up with an ideologue to challenge the governor in two years, and while a moderate could give him a strong race he can beat an ideologue. That person is likely to be Congressman Steve King, the man who said terrorists would be “dancing in the streets” if Obama became president, the man who said the election of Obama would turn America into a “totalitarian dictatorship,” the man who wants to build a wall and an electrified, barbed-wire fence along the Mexican border. He’s Iowa’s very own kook, but he’s a kook for whom the Republican power structure will get out the primary vote. Culver, who has alienated his own backers, especially labor, should send thank-you notes to the mossbacks who control the Iowa Republican party. (Culver, who daringly came out for Obama after he had won the Iowa caucus, flew into Chicago on a Bill Knapp jet for the acceptance speech Tuesday night.)

Republican state chair Stew Iverson saw the returns and on Thursday announced he’d step down in January, walking out before he’d be thrown out by the folks from the far right. Though there is some talk that Bill Dix, the conservative former legislator from Shell Rock, might want the job, the Republicans probably will replace Iverson with Ted Sporer, the head of the Polk County Republicans. That would further solidify the far right’s control of the party apparatus — Sporer announced his challenge on Steve Deace’s radio show, for Pete’s sake. And, as Skinny predicted last week, House Minority Whip Kraig Paulsen decided to challenge Rants for the role of minority leader — and Monday the House caucus threw Rants out and voted Paulsen in. The overthrow isn’t exactly a plus in Rants’ unannounced but real bid to run for governor in two years, but his position grew precarious on Election Night when he saw his well-funded party lose five more House seats. But the change to Paulsen won’t mean a whole lot in the chamber — like Rants, Paulsen gets 100 percent-approval ratings from far-right Christian groups and a zero rating from the Iowa Civil Liberties Union. He’s a nice guy, though. Among other things, conservatives are mad at Rants for supporting Mitt Romney in the caucuses. Wrote Deace the other day: “Christopher Rants, and the entire leadership of the Romney Party of Iowa for that matter, needs to be dropped in a bottomless cistern never to be seen or heard from again.” Kind of un-Christian-like, if you ask Skinny. And a particularly insensitive suggestion in light of the ongoing civil trial last week in a Polk County courtroom where the Tommy Lyon family pursued a wrongful death claim against Rodney Heemstra — who, you’ll recall, shot Lyon in the head and then dumped his body in a cistern.

Harkin is a winner because he suddenly has lots of patronage to hand out — a couple of U.S. attorney jobs, some federal ag jobs, U.S. marshal jobs, etc. — and also because he moves up in seniority and — given the decision by Robert Byrd to give up his chair at the Appropriations Committee — could end up with even more clout in his areas of expertise: agriculture, health care, education and labor. All that bodes well for the three state universities, among others. Assuming the felon Ted Stevens of Alaska either loses or is tossed out, Harkin moves from 19th to 15th in Senate seniority — and Grassley moves from 15th to 11th. Only Massachusetts — represented by the ailing Ted Kennedy and the possible Secretary of State John Kerry — now will have two senators with more seniority than Iowa’s. (John Kerry was sworn in one day before Harkin was.) That means money for the state. (Harkin won with 63 percent of the vote – huge, for him – but loser Christopher Reed has yet to call and concede.)

Scott Brennan is a winner because he might well end up as Attorney General of Iowa. The state Democratic chair was put in the job by Culver, with Harkin’s approval, and most people say the Des Moines lawyer has done a good job. Most people also think the current attorney general, Tom Miller, will soon be off to Washington as a reward for coming out early for Obama in the caucuses. If that’s the case, say three people who claim to know about such things, the job is Brennan’s if he wants it. Another possibility: Bonnie Campbell, who is close to Culver and his family. But she’s been there, done that – and seems to like her law practice. That, of course, also works in Brennan’s favor. (Obama state director Jackie Norris may well go to Washington, too, though Skinny hears she has turned down one offer in the White House.)

Des Moines pollster Ann Selzer is a winner because, once again, she made a perfect call in a dicey situation. Selzer, who is considered one of the two best pollsters in America, said Obama would beat John McCain in Indiana by 0.6 percent. He did. Most others were picking McCain. That call won’t hurt her business.

Though the Democrats didn’t do as well as expected — adding just two state senate seats (assuming Jeff Danielson ends up winning in Cedar Falls) and just five in the House — Senate leader Mike Gronstal and House Speaker Pat Murphy remain solidly in charge of their caucuses, Skinny’s pals report. They blame the poorer-than-expected showing on candidates who were too smug or too lazy, even though Gronstal and Murphy showered them with money and Obama and Harkin gave them huge coattails to grab onto. Still, the Democrats’ control will be stronger next session — 32 to 18 in the senate, 56 to 44 in the house — and, besides, “who would want those leadership jobs next session; it’s going to be a crappy year,” one Capitol Hill watcher told Skinny.

One thing is certain: the Iowa caucuses will lead the nation again in four years. The caucuses proved Obama was a viable candidate, and he won’t forget that. And that’s probably why Mike Huckabee has already scheduled a couple of stops in the state for this month. In other words, the 2012 campaign has started. Geez.

As for the TV stations, after the coverage a guy sent Skinny this e-mail: “It’s a sad commentary on news judgment, but if you live in Central Iowa and you didn’t have cable or satellite TV, you missed the historical call of the presidential election for Obama. Meanwhile, KCCI, WHO and WOI, all of which broke from network coverage at the previously appointed 10 p.m. hour, carried Iowa house returns and Tom Harkin’s umpteenth victory speech. Free TV may have joined those consumer goods where you get what you pay for.”

Kind of like Skinny. CV

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