By Sean J. Miller

For the past 35 years, Iowans have been the first voters in the country to test the mettle of the men and women who would be president. Being at the front of the nominating contest schedule has given Iowa an integral role in American politics, which provides a myriad of benefits for the state. “Iowa isn’t first because it’s important, it’s important because it’s first,” says Hugh Winebrenner, a Drake University political science professor who has written a history of the caucus.

Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have traditionally been the early voting states for the Republican and Democratic parties. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) last year added Nevada, which holds a caucus, to its schedule between Iowa and New Hampshire. The 2008 Democratic nominating schedule was supposed to go like this: the Iowa caucus on Jan. 14, followed by Nevada’s caucus on Jan. 19, New Hampshire’s primary on Jan. 22 and South Carolina’s primary on Jan. 29. Early voting states have the honor of going first because they’re considered the best stages for grassroots politics — they’re easily traveled, have small urban centers and engaged populations. All other states could choose to hold their nominating contests on Feb. 5, or later. Some states grumbled about their place in the order — why should New Hampshire be more important politically than, say, Florida — and have scheduled their primaries ahead of Feb. 5, in violation of the schedule set by the DNC.

Some states are hoping to glean some of the attention bestowed on Iowa and New Hampshire by encroaching on the early voting schedule. The Florida Legislature recently moved its primary to Jan. 29, and petitioned the DNC for permission to hold the contest in the early voting window. The DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee ruled on Aug. 25 that Florida was in violation of the schedule and would have until Sept. 28, to submit a new plan, or lose 100 percent of its delegates. Florida is still considering its options, but Michigan’s Legislature made a similar move, passing a bill to bump its primary to Jan. 15, a week ahead of the first approved primary, set to be held in New Hampshire. The state and political parties together run Michigan’s primary, known as a “firehouse primary,” and its parties have yet to sign off on the plan, according to the DNC. But the move has raised the possibility of a leap-frogging in the early voting schedule.

New Hampshire, for instance, has a state law that says its primary must be held seven days before a “like contest.” New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner, who has defended his state’s first in the nation primary for 31 years, says he’s waiting to see what happens in Michigan before he takes any action.

“I’ve always been concerned,” he says, about losing the first in the nation status. “But we’re prepared to do whatever we need to do to ensure it doesn’t happen.” In the meantime, Iowa Democratic Party (IDP) officials and their Republican counterparts, who together set the date for the caucuses, are also playing the waiting game — trying to determine whether Iowans will need to be both caucusing and Christmas shopping to maintain their first in the nation status.

Although it might sound unbelievable to many Iowans, there was a time when the Hawkeye state wasn’t the first stop on the road to the White House. The Democratic Party made rule changes in the 1970s that changed the nominating process. As a result, the Iowa Democratic Party decided to move its 1972 caucus forward, says Winebrenner. “They’ve always had precinct caucuses here, but ’72 was the beginning of the modern caucus cycle with Iowa first in the nation.”

In 1975, Jimmy Carter, who was then finishing his second term as governor of Georgia, began virtually living in Iowa in an attempt to win the caucus, Winebrenner says. “He recognized Iowa would have an early impact.” Carter’s early state campaign eventually attracted national media, he says. Carter, who wasn’t well known outside the South, shattered expectations when he came in second in the 1976 caucus. “Carter’s miraculous climb from nowhere to nominee to president certainly made the Iowa caucuses,” Winebrenner says. “It lived on that reputation gained from the Carter victory.”

Winning Iowa doesn’t hand a candidate his or her party’s nomination, Winebrenner adds, but it can destroy a candidate’s chances of winning the nomination. Previously it would be possible to recover from a poor showing in Iowa because there was close to a month between the caucus and the next nominating contest. Now, Iowa is the first domino in a tight series of contests. “Iowa has become a winnower. If you don’t do well in Iowa, it’s hard to raise money for your race,” he says. The compressed schedule shortens the impact Iowa has on the overall race, but it doesn’t eliminate it. Candidates don’t have to win Iowa, “but they certainly have to finish in the top three,” he says. “It’s all about perception.”

The perception that Iowa is an important state politically has translated into an intense period of national attention every four years. And that attention has an economic impact. Harvey Siegelman, who was the Iowa state economist from 1982-2001, says he’s the only state official to ever compile a report on the economic impact of the Iowa caucus. He started by calculating how many reporters were in the state covering the caucus and then found out what the average per diem allowance per reporter was, he says. “We assumed, like all good reporters, they would spend every penny of their per diems.”

Then he accounted for things like TV equipment rentals, or space the networks rented, such as the Civic Center, to set up an anchor desk for broadcasts. On top of that, there’s what the campaign staff spends and what the campaigns themselves spend in Iowa on everything from printing signs and literature to renting hotels rooms and cars. The numbers he compiled originally were from 1998, but when he adjusted them for inflation in 2004, he concluded about $80 million was coming into the state as a result of the caucus.

“That’s got to be at least double that now, maybe even more so,” says Siegelman, who now runs Strategic Economics Groups, a consulting firm in Des Moines. “We have more candidates running. They are spending record levels this year.”

Siegelman is quick to add that the benefit to Iowa reaches far beyond dollars spent. “By being first in the nation, we have a much more proportionate impact on [the candidates’] legislative agendas,” he says. “That’s what makes it much more important than any dollar amount that’s spent here.”

It’s possible to see what Siegelman is talking about at almost any town hall forum held by a presidential candidate in Iowa. They have to listen intently to questions and comments from average citizens. Not scripted, pre-screened softballs, but real questions from voters. It can make for revealing exchanges, like Gov. Mitt Romney having to explain how his Mormon faith would influence his presidency, or how Gov. Bill Richardson plans to reform the Social Security program. “If we were to pay them to get our views to be adopted, I don’t think we could have bought it for $50 million,” Siegelman says. “The money that comes in here doesn’t change the course of history.”

That’s why it’s important for Iowa to keep its first in the nation status, he says. Otherwise, “who’s going to listen to a state that’s one and a quarter percent of the U.S. population?” Iowans who do business with the campaigns are also apt to point out that there’s more to the state’s political economy than just taking in money.

Gayle Collins, a realtor who specializes in leasing office space in downtown Des Moines, has, for more than a decade, helped presidential campaigns find office space in the metro. She placed Al Gore’s campaign in an office on Ingersoll Avenue in 1998, and helped John Kerry find office space on Locust Street in 2003, she says. This time around, most of the campaigns have opted for low-rent space in the East Village or on the West Side of the metro.

“The space that used to be available is being rehabilitated. You don’t have the empty buildings anymore,” she says. The campaigns have also signed longer leases and have had to pay more because the real estate market has improved since the last caucus. The campaigns usually lease space in the range of 2,500-3,000 square feet, Collins says. Office space in Des Moines is going for about $12 a square foot, so the campaigns are paying about $3,000 a month for space. With six Democratic candidates who have offices in the metro and seven Republicans either with an address or looking for space, that represents a significant amount of money for the economy. There’s one way that landlords ensure they get their money from the campaigns, Collins says. “You’ve got to pay up front.”

The agents and, to an extent, the landlords don’t get rich off these deals because they’re short-term leases, Collins adds. “You just have more fun dealing with the candidates and their staff than any financial reward.” Landlords will often offer a building to a candidate who they support, rather than waiting for a campaign to approach them. Other businesses that benefit financially from the caucus went to lengths to mention the camaraderie they feel with the campaigns.

Nathan Roberts, who manages The Village Bean, an East Village coffee shop near the Obama, Clinton and Edwards presidential campaign offices, says they’ve received steady business from a tide of weary campaign staffers. Having the campaigns within a stone’s throw has also meant a 15 percent increase in sales, he says. “We love the campaign people.”

Despite the rivalries that exist between their candidates, there’s never been a “West Side Story”-like showdown between the staffers. “Everyone’s really peaceful. People have friends in the other campaigns,” says Roberts, who’s managed the café for a year and a half. Although, he adds, “I think we’re officially the Obama campaign coffee headquarters.” Roberts thinks every member of the Iowa staff, even Michelle Obama, Barack’s wife, has stopped in, he says. “I know probably 10 regulars by name.”

Jeff Hunter, owner of the Hotel Fort Des Moines, expresses the same appreciation for the campaigns’ business. He gives candidates free upgrades, he explains during a recent tour of the popular political suites. “It’s my sense of ambassadorship. I want them to like Iowa and Des Moines.” His hotel, which he calls “bi-partisan,” has hosted everyone from Sens. Chris Dodd and Hillary Clinton to former Massachusetts Gov. Romney, Hunter says. Business increases five fold during the campaign season, and reservations are disappearing fast, he says. Clinton and Dodd have already booked the hotel for their caucus night parties.

“Hillary usually [comes with] a group of two to three staffers,” he says. “She’s had as many as a half dozen Secret Service [agents].” The agents and staff get their own rooms, Hunter says. “They eat in the food and beverage outlets, and they’re all good tippers.” The staff can testify to that, too. Chequers Lounge bartender Eric Dillinger has been through a couple caucuses and says the tips are outstanding. During the three months leading up to the 2000 caucus, he made $10,000 in tips. In 2004, he took in $8,000. Like an experienced political commentator, he explains the difference as 2000 being a time when both parties held contests.

“There’s always been a political spin to this hotel,” says Hunter, pointing out that the 88-year-old hotel has housed almost every man who has ever served as president starting with Woodrow Wilson. The only candidate who hasn’t stayed at the hotel is Rudy Giuliani, Hunter says. The former New York City mayor was a no-show for his reservation, “but we charged him,” he says.

If Iowa loses the attention it gets from the caucuses, says Hunter, who bought the hotel in 1999, it would hurt. “It just would slow down the progress we’re making restoring the hotel,” he says. “Every four years, it’s an additional bump of money we put back in the hotel.”

But the caucus season isn’t all revenue flowing into Iowa. There are some hidden costs related to hosting a nominating contest that draws national attention. Des Moines police frequently escort the motorcades of arriving high-profile candidates like Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama. Getting these “rock stars” from the airport tarmac to their downtown hotels is costly, says Merrill Stanley, deputy Des Moines city manager. In 2004, Des Moines spent $75,000 providing security during the six months leading up to the caucus. This time around, the city had gone through $75,000 by the end of June, and has incurred another $14,000 since, he says, and the tab will only get tens of thousands of dollars higher closer towards January. “We’ve just had to accept we’re the capital city of the state that’s first in the nation, and it just comes with the territory,” Stanley says.

Mary Tiffany, a spokesperson for the Republican Party of Iowa (RPI), says the difference between being first in the nation and just part of a pack of states would be “like night and day.”

“Iowans would be in shock if we weren’t first in the nation,” Tiffany says. “If we weren’t first, what would be the point of [candidates] spending so much time here?” The Iowa Republicans are coordinating with the Iowa Democrats to make sure the caucus stays first in the nation.

For now, the date will remain set for Jan. 14, 2008, says Carrie Giddins, spokeswoman for the IDP. “We can’t speculate about what other states might do.” The IDP has circulated a pledge that asks candidates not to campaign in states that have violated the DNC schedule. Every candidate has signed it except Rep. Dennis Kucinich and former Alaska senator Mike Gravel, Giddins says.

If states continue to crowd into the early voting window and New Hampshire does move its primary up, it could conceivably schedule it for Jan. 8, which would leave Iowa enough time to holds its caucus after the New Year. “Iowa is still intending on maintaining its date unless something definite happens that forces it to change,” says Michael Mauro, Iowa’s secretary of state who has advised the state parties during the process. “The goal is to keep it in ’08.”

Political observers such as Dennis Goldford, a Drake professor who’s collaborating with Winebrenner on another book about the caucus, says that Iowa will maintain its importance as long as it’s first in the nation. “The more you front load Iowa, the more important Iowa becomes,” he says. “It’s the first major recognized nomination contest.” CV

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