Ed Fallon won't talk about what happens if he loses a Democratic primary for Iowa governor - not really. He thinks he can win, and if he didn't, he wouldn't be running, he said. And with top Dems telling us Fallon is picking up steam, with Chet Culver and Mike Blouin seemingly tripping over each other, Fallon, we're told, seems poised to make a move. "They (Culver and Blouin) aren't helping themselves," our source said. "I thought Culver's pick of (Patty) Judge as a running-mate (for lieutenant governor) was awful until Blouin made his choice (Andrea McGuire). And they both still have issue problems at a time when issues - despite what you read in The Des Moines Register - are more important to Iowans than who is raising what for whom." Fallon, our source said, could also "muck things up" if he loses and decides to run as an Independent (and take his supporters with him come November). "He has a tremendous grassroots base. The top dogs can't ignore him anymore, and they cannot write him off as crazy like they used to because they need him. Blouin outspent him five-to-one, and the two have the same name ID." Fallon told us he doesn't want Jim Nussle as governor, so he is unlikely to run as an Independent. However, he will not rule it out. "If I were to lose, and I don't think I will," Fallon said, "I would support the party's candidate if he decided to address the issues that need to be addressed - clear campaign ethics law, universal healthcare, true support for education and stopping urban sprawl." Fallon, big campaign backers or not, has his hands on the chicken switch. "I've gotten more done as a candidate for governor than I have in 13 years as a legislator," he said. "And people are paying attention." When we asked a top statehouse source what they thought of Fallon's chances, this person said the end of him will likely be his inability to raise money, but "stranger things have happened." "You got one candidate who is pro-life who has a lieutenant governor candidate who has given money to Republicans for years, while voting as one," this person said. "While on the other side, you got a pro-death penalty candidate with no record who has a running mate who is as wishy-washy as the other guy on abortion and has ties to people who are ruining the state's environment. Then you have Ed. If this thing were decided by issues and not TV commercials, Ed would win hands down." And because of such sentiment, Fallon told us that he is truly the only candidate who can beat Nussle. "The cynics don't believe because they think it's about money. But Republican light never wins," he said referring to Blouin. "Nor does having no track record (referring to Culver). You have to be right on the issues and be organized." Tom Harkin blasts corporate welfare and fights hard for the poor. Paul Wellstone was out spent six-to-one, Fallon points out. "These are people for the people. I mean, if politics is only about who can raise the most money and attract the biggest names, we might as well write-off American democracy." Fallon, who said that 20 percent of his identified supporters are Republican and Independent, told us that he will be up on TV and radio in the near future, and while he won't have as much as the other guys, he won't need as much as them either. "I actually have a message and a goal that doesn't end at simply being governor. They (Culver and Blouin) can have the old-school Washington types and the corporate money; I just want the people who think the government we have isn't working. I'm convinced they are in the majority and deserve a true Democratic voice as their leader."

Think the Fallon stuff is pure foolishness? Try this on for size. After Blouin stepped "in it" and "on it" last week with his boneheaded choice of McGuire, the rumblings from inside AFSCME started to become more of a dull roar. As was widely reported two weeks ago, AFSCME bit the bullet and endorsed Mike Blouin, passing over Culver because of his boneheaded move: Judge. And while many speculate that Gov. Tom Vilsack had something to do with Blouin getting the nod, he may not have enough in his bag of tricks to keep AFSCME involved. In fact, some members of AFSCME want Blouin to ditch McGuire due to her generosity toward Republican candidates in the past. Will Blouin keep her on the ticket? It's anyone's guess. But AFSCME may not be sticking around to find out. For years, AFSCME has struggled with a Republican governor, followed by a Republican Legislature. The hatred between the two factions is well known, making the prospects for a working relationship on some form of common-ground legislation nonexistent. So, the question begs: is it time to forge ties with a Republican candidate? The idea isn't as crazy as it seems. For one, it will be better to get at least a part of their legislative agenda rather than be completely stonewalled by Nussle. Secondly, Nussle has said he will restructure government, from the top down. That's something that AFSCME has to be a part of, or risk leaving their members - literally - out in the cold. Is there a relationship forming? One Capitol insider told us he saw AFSCME head Marcia Nichols huddled pretty closely with Nussle Campaign Manager Nick Ryan last Thursday, as the two enjoyed a lunch together just yards away from the office Nussle hopes to occupy. Nobody we talked to could name the last time a GOP campaign staffer sat for a cordial meeting with an AFSCME head. But that hasn't stopped speculation from swirling.

Also, look for a couple of prominent Democrats to publicly support the Nussle campaign if Mike Blouin wins the Democratic primary, we're told. After all, Blouin's running mate McGuire has set precedent by supporting Republican candidates and still being rewarded with the second highest position a Democrat can hold in the state. Look for these individuals to tell Blouin they are following McGuire's lead and "being independent."

Here's one: Matt Elliott, the former Republican Party of Iowa legislative campaign director who left the party to work for Mitt Romney, has left the Romney campaign to run against a Republican incumbent, Rich Anderson of Clarinda. The move has sent shock waves through the House GOP caucus. Matt was the guy legislative incumbents counted on to get them re-elected and he's turned on one of the party's own. Anderson represents the district where Elliott grew up, but that's not an excuse to run against an incumbent. Romney's campaign has been issuing a bunch of apologies. Legislative Republicans deservedly feel betrayed, a leader in the House told us. "Matt has pretty much destroyed his reputation with (Speaker Chris) Rants and all legislative Republicans. The only thing worse than losing in the primary would be winning in the primary. He'd really get the cold shoulder then." Word has it that Iowans for Tax Relief are bankrolling Elliott by giving him "work" while he runs against Anderson and they'll fund his campaign, of course. Iowans for Tax Relief have been mad at Rants for putting them in their place and trying to diminish their influence over House members and this is part of the payback, our source said.

Finally, we've heard that Centro/Raccoon River owner Paul Rottenberg is taking a hard look at taking over Metro Market, and that he would move South Union Bakery to the basement and turn upstairs into a local Iowa products grocery... Living History Farms wants to host the BLT Festival our food writer Jim Duncan proposed in our foodie guide Relish. DMACC is also interested in playing a role. CV

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