Which political strategy will prove more effective for Republican candidates in the Iowa Caucus?

By Bret Voorhees

There is an old adage in football that says you can’t win unless you have a solid ground game. While that analogy has also been used in terms of winning the Iowa caucus, this year it will be tested in new ways. Will the old themes of developing an organization of county chairs and precinct captains to ensure supporters get to the caucus sites — combined with solid personal retail visits to the state — win? Or will that be overshadowed by heavy television and electronic ads, national debates, social media and the compression of a number of early state caucuses and primaries? And how will late poll surges play out for candidates like Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul?

What happens at the caucus?

Of the 600,000 registered Republicans in Iowa, it is estimated that roughly one out of five will take the time to find the caucus site for their precinct on Jan. 3. While those sites had previously been neighborhood homes, the 1,784 precincts now use schools, libraries and churches.

After electing a chair to run the meeting, a spokesperson for each candidate — typically the precinct captain — is allowed to make one last sales pitch. Candidate preference ballots are handed out, and caucus goers then vote for their selections. Unlike Democrats, who have a percentage threshold candidates need to meet to be termed viable, Republicans simply cast ballots that are tabulated and compiled to determine the winner.

Having a solid organization of county chairs — and more importantly, precinct captains — is “huge” according to Bill Shickel, co-chair of the Iowa Republic Party who has served as a state representative and mayor of Mason City. Shickel said these captains are essential and have the key missions of enlisting supporters and making sure they make it to the caucus site.

“Those that have taken the time to organize will have an advantage over those that haven’t,” Shickel said.

The other part of the traditional ground game includes taking time to visit Iowa and meet Iowans on a one-on-one basis.

“I believe that face time is important,” Shickel said. “Iowans expect that.”

At the same time, Shickel also notes the dimension and importance of social media outlets such as Facebook, Twitter and other digital communication paths. He said those sites now act as “echo chambers” that can accentuate the positives of candidates and also compound negatives as bloggers and posters chew on candidate performances.

Building that organization takes time and paid boots on the ground, which is obvious in the following four campaigns that have followed the traditional model.

Bachmann

Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann hit her peak after winning the Republican straw poll in Iowa on Aug. 13, but then dropped in the polls. She has made a strong commitment to Iowa and has been building her organization of county chairs and precinct captains. She reshuffled her campaign and hired Eric Woolson to lead her Iowa efforts. Woolson, a proven campaign operative, is known for spearheading a surprise showing by Mike Huckabee in the 2008 caucuses. In an ideal world, Woolson said, campaigns have both an air game with solid television and electronic ads and ground game.

“The ground game is very important and something we have been relying on as we build the county organization,” he said. “It is hard to just run an air game and cut through the clutter.”

Bachmann has consistently visited Iowa and conducted a solid retail campaign. In the closing days, she held a 99-county barnstorming tour.

Santorum

Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum leads the pack in terms of personal visits in Iowa, and his campaign includes the catch phrase of visiting all 99 counties. During the national debates, he dropped names of Iowa county seats and towns with accuracy and ease. At a recent stump speech at Pioneer Hi-Bred International Headquarters in Johnston, Santorum acknowledged that he has very little resources. “But I have had the energy and commitment to soldier on in spite of everyone saying I have no chance of winning,” he said.

Santorum tells the story of his first congressional win when he went door-to-door in a heavily Democratic Pennsylvania district. “I went out and knocked on doors, talked about the things I believed in and worked hard,” he said. “Don’t pay attention to national polls. Be independent and lead.”

Santorum said his goal is to exceed his low poll numbers and “do better than everyone thinks I will do.” Finishing ahead of Bachmann and Texas Governor Rick Perry will be vital for him.

Perry

Watching television and not seeing a series of ads promoting the Texas governor is difficult to do. According to NBC’s First Read, Rick Perry will spend more than $4 million in ad buys in Iowa.

Perry entered the race in August on the day of the straw poll. National spokesperson Ray Sullivan said the campaign “quickly recognized the importance of putting a strong professional and volunteer grass roots organization in Iowa.” Matt Gronewald, a deputy executive director for the state party and considered a campaign pro, was named state campaign lead. Ten paid staff members were hired, and offices were opened in Des Moines, Mason City, Sioux City, Cedar Rapids and Davenport.

“We view this as a three-legged stool with grass roots organization, paid and earned media in terms of public relations and the best conservative record and policy ideas,” Sullivan said. “Iowans expect to see and hear from the candidates. They are independent and take their job very seriously.”

Sullivan said Perry “puts a premium on grass roots organization and good old-fashioned retail political campaigning.”

While Perry was an early poll leader, he has dropped back with spotty debate performances.

“We feel like we have had a few very strong weeks on the campaign trail. Our grass roots and media are building momentum, and the race remains very fluid,” Sullivan said.

Sullivan is “optimistic about a strong showing” but is reluctant to predict an exact placement.

Paul

Like Perry, Texas Congressman Ron Paul has combined a heavy air game with a solid ground game. According to First Read, he will spend $2.8 million on the air game. As for the ground game, he opened his Ankeny office in late April. His paid Iowa staff numbers five with a state director and four regional directors, according to James Barcia, deputy press secretary.

“Iowa essentially is a ground game with local people dealing with local people,” Barcia said.

Barcia said Paul has been “very active and competitive with over 50 appearances in Iowa.” He notes that Paul is very candid with the question and answer sessions held during town hall meetings.

“He is very generous with his time and is not in and out of the door,” said Barcia.

Paul has consistently polled in the top three and has a recognized set of ardent supporters. That has translated into a heavy volunteer base, according to Barcia who said the idea is to grow on a constant incremental basis. A strong top three in the caucus is the goal.

The non-followers

While these four candidates have followed the traditional Iowa model, two of the leaders did not follow that path.

Newt Gingrich’s campaign hovered out of sight through the year after his campaign staff resigned en masse. But a funny thing happened on what some called “a book tour.” Gingrich surged late in November and December, became a serious candidate and scrambled to build an organization in Iowa. He has launched a limited ad campaign. His campaign did not respond to Cityview for comment.

Mitt Romney showed little early interest in Iowa and concentrated instead on the New Hampshire primary. That seemed to change when Gingrich surged. Romney and his surrogates also launched a late ad effort to promote his positives while attacking Gingrich. His campaign also did not respond to Cityview for comment.

Debates and the unknown factors

One of the unknowns in this year’s campaign involves the multitude of nationally televised debates which have given the candidates an opportunity to outline their positions on key issues, while attacking their opponents. For candidates like Jon Huntsman, with no organization in Iowa, the debates that he qualified for were his only opportunity to reach out to caucus goers.

Shickel said message and organization are the keys to a strong candidate. “When you have both, look out,” he said. He is surprised by the amount of impact of the debates. Traditionally, debates are something candidates try to “get past” without errors and are not “historically used to draw supporters,” he said.

The debates “and 24-hour social media news cycle seems to have nationalized the campaign more than in previous cycles,” Sullivan said from the Perry camp. Social media has given campaigns new tools to quickly spread positive and negative messages.

There is an old saying that might apply now — “in for a penny, in for a pound.” While Iowa remains the first state that gives the candidates an opportunity to drive momentum, New Hampshire follows just a week later. The line-up this year is Iowa on Jan. 3, New Hampshire on Jan. 10, South Carolina on Jan. 21 and Florida on Jan. 31. Some candidates have focused on later states; Bachmann for example has spent time and resources in South Carolina. The line-up may diminish Iowa’s impact.

Democrats

While the Republicans are garnering all of the attention, Iowa Democrats will also caucus on Jan. 3. As a battleground state, the “ground game and activating people now is going to help in the general election,” according to Sam Roecker, Communications Director from the state committee.

Roecker said the televised debates take time away in terms of preparing for candidates, and they have to be very focused on the televised shows. But he said they “don’t compare to being able to question the candidate. One-on-one and retails are very important,” he said. “It takes more than TV ads to win.”

Predictions

As one might expect, the campaigns are reluctant to establish a solid goal in terms of placing in Iowa and don’t want to be in a position to perform lower than pre-caucus predictions. Placing better than the poll numbers is often cited as the objective. As already noted, Paul’s campaign was one of the few that put the bar at a top three finish.

Santorum said Iowa could end up as a “muddled mess,” and the caucus could not decide anything if the end result is a tight grouping. All of the campaigns stress “fluid” poll results, meaning that Iowans have still not decided on a clear frontrunner.

While placing in the top three in Iowa has traditionally been considered vital, fourth place might be enough for a candidate who anticipates a solid showing in New Hampshire, which follows a week later.

One thing is certain. The state will shrink back to pumpkin status and confusion with Idaho at the stroke of midnight on Jan. 3 when results are known — that is until the general election cycle heats up and, as a battleground state, Iowa regains some prominence. CV