TV Weather Wars
Debate rages on which local news station has the “most accurate forecast”
By Matt Miller
Throughout the test of time, the world has been witness to famous battles. Soldiers and warriors have become infamous and immortal because of the great victories they have achieved. The blood and flesh sacrificed between the Spartans and Persians, the Union Army and the Confederates or the lives lost at the Battle of Normandy are just small examples of individuals putting their lives on the line for the good of humanity.
While victors have left their mark and changed the course of history, there is yet another battle brewing — one of a different kind that comes to onlookers and available at most any time of the day. Terms like “siege,” “gunship” and “battalion” have been replaced with “echo,” “precipitation” and “Doppler” to describe the phenomenon of “TV Weather Wars.” When it comes to predicting weather, TV stations like KCCI Channel 8, WHO Channel 13 and WOI Channel 5 have their viewers’ best interests in mind, but which local station has the “most accurate forecast?” That depends on who you ask.
“For the past three years, our team of meteorologists has been awarded ‘Central Iowa’s Most Accurate Forecast,’ and it’s something our station is very honored to have,” said Brad Edwards, chief meteorologist at WOI Channel 5 in West Des Moines. “It pisses me off when I hear KCCI report they’re the most accurate because it’s not true. We’ve won the award, which means we’re No. 1. KCCI continues to make a claim that isn’t true.”
KCCI Chief Meteorologist John McLaughlin has his own take.
“Viewers know on a day-to-day basis who they’re going to watch,” said McLaughlin, who has been awarded the American Meteorological Society and the National Weather Association Seals of Approval. “The difference between us and the other two stations is that when there is serious weather and the crap hits the fan, that’s when we shine.”
A never-ending debate
So who’s your pick? KCCI, WHO or WOI? According to WeatheRate, a company based out of Phoenix, Ariz., WOI Channel 5 recently performed a three-peat in being the most accurate. Founded by Bruce Fixman in 2003, WeatheRate employees review four-day forecasts from local TV stations in 75 U.S. cities. The forecast and observed weather data (high and low temperatures, sky cover, precipitation, snow accumulation, wind, fog) are fed into WeatherTracker II software. From there, the software’s algorithms calculate which station is the most accurate. WeatheRate offers its seal of approval in September and March after it reviews its finding from a timeline of March 1 to Feb. 28. The company determines the best daily, weekly and monthly accuracy. The most accurate station in each TV market is offered the opportunity to license the WeatheRate seal of approval for advertising and promotional purposes. Fixman says the money is then used to cover the cost of research and information gathering.
“The research that we do is very comprehensive,” said Fixman, meteorologist and president of the company. “We don’t take a look at just one or two stats — it’s a very in-depth calculation that determines a winner.”
Proclaiming itself as the country’s only independent weather forecast verification company, WeatheRate has built a reputation. In 2003, the company gathered data from 200 local TV stations in 50 U.S. cities. Today, WeatheRate verifies weather forecast accuracy for 300 stations in 75 U.S. cities. This year marks the third in a row WOI Channel 5 has won the title of “Most Accurate Forecast” since it began submitting information on a Web site (www.weatherate.com) where registration is required. This registration allows subscribers to add details from a series of multiple-choice menus with a variety of other details about rain and potential severe weather. Some would say this would give an edge to the station or department working to get the rating.
“Nothing against Brad, but we know it’s a company thing,” said Ed Wilson, chief meteorologist at WHO Channel 13 in downtown Des Moines. “In this market, it’s so tight between WHO and KCCI that I think there’s some frustration from WOI. Much of the ‘TV Weather Wars’ comes from the work of the promotional department. You can spin it how you want it.”
Fixman says the most accurate seal is not up for sale.
“The numbers are what the numbers are,” he said. “The seal is not up for sale, and if anyone wants to see the numbers, then I’ll be sure they can see them.”
As of mid-February, WeatheRate had ranked WOI at 5.85, WHO at 6.48 and KCCI at 6.68, with the lowest score the most accurate.
Edwards say the winner is in the score.
“WeatheRate is a very legitimate service,” he said. “It does get under my skin when others say things that aren’t true. We’re the blue-collar workers. We don’t have the glitz and the glam the other two stations around here do, but forecasting is the equalizer. We roll up our sleeves each day and deliver the forecast. The numbers don’t lie.”
Bragging rights
Weather reporting has advanced by leaps and bounds with the use of modern technology. Computers play an important role in the forecast, and each central Iowa news station believes it has the right stuff to keep citizens safe. Currently, WHO has four meteorologists, WOI has three and KCCI has four.
According to WHO’s Web site (www.whotv.com), the station’s First Alert Mega Doppler is “the most powerful radar available to the broadcast market.” They claim Mega Doppler is 142 times more powerful than the station’s last radar and four times more powerful than KCCI’s. The Doppler has one million watts. The station also has Chopper 13, which patrols the skies.
WHO Channel 13 reached out to central Iowans in 2004 by partnering with The Science Center of Iowa. The station broadcasts the weather live from the Science Center Weather Studio weekly, and visitors are able to witness live weather broadcasts and interact with other meteorologists.
“It’s been a blast,” said Wilson, speaking about working in collaboration with The Science Center of Iowa. “To have the youth visit you and talk about severe weather at such a young age is awesome. When I was their age, I was watching Bugs Bunny; they’re watching The Weather Channel. You can see the fire in them to learn about the weather.”
KCCI Channel 8 features Live Super Doppler HD 8, along with KCCI SchoolNet 8, which is a collection of 75 weather observing stations located at schools throughout central Iowa. The stations report live information via the Internet.
“The stations are hands-on, which allows the youth to apply what they learn to the real world,” McLaughlin said. “There are some rising stars in this market, and it’s good to see them coming along.”
The life of a weatherman
TV Weather Wars, also known as TV Radar Wars or Doppler Wars, has garnered attention for many years as stations try to gain credibility with local TV audiences. The topic found the national spotlight in 2006 when WTWO, a television station in Terre Haute, Ind., aired a controversial one-minute promotion criticizing WTHI over its weather coverage. The ad also took aim at the combined experience of WTWO’s weather team and how it was more than that of WTHI’s staff. The ad caught the eye of Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show.” Host Jon Stewart poked fun at the two stations while using hyperbole and techniques similar to political attack ads. WTWO then produced an attack video — this one targeting Stewart. Both videos showed up on YouTube, but have been removed since.
“In Iowa, people like to talk about the weather, so we like to talk about who we believe is the best,” Wilson said. “The ‘TV Weather Wars’ is a fun subject.”
Meteorologists have become icons throughout the world. Like clockwork, people tune their televisions and radios to hear a prediction of upcoming weather. Today, weather is virtually a part of every news programming.
Open for thousands of viewers to see on a daily basis, weathermen and women earn a reputation — good or bad — based on their forecasting skills. Viewers may also base their opinions on presentation, if the person is a male or female, or the use of computer graphics. Yet others may tune into a specific broadcast because of the attractiveness of the person on screen. One thing is for sure — each is trying to validate a profession that is constantly under the microscope.
“There isn’t a lot of respect for meteorologists,” Edwards said. “People are always coming down on us if we mess up. We don’t want to do that. We’re constantly trying to get rid of that bad reputation.”
McLaughlin agrees.
“Our jobs are about matching our minds against Mother Nature,” he said. “Here at KCCI we’ve done a lot to build this station up, but it can all be lost in one simple event.”
Fixing a reputation that is constantly questioned isn’t easy. Edwards, McLaughlin and Wilson all admit there have been some memorable times throughout their careers.
“I was thinking about saying, ‘It’s a nice day to take a jump in the lake,’” Edwards said. “But it came out, ‘It’s a nice day to take a dump in the lake.’ I was embarrassed at the time but looking back it’s kind of comical.”
For McLaughlin, it was a time of uncertainty about the weather. Back when he and Wilson were doing weekends, a snowstorm was to hit Des Moines. WHO Channel 13 forecasted 12 inches of snow, but KCCI Channel 8 was predicting 1 inch.
“That was my most concerned time,” McLaughlin said, reminiscing of the event that happened in the late 1980s or early 1990s. “We ended up getting a 1/2-inch of snow.”
Almost being struck by lightning and covering a tornado outbreak both stick in Wilson’s mind, but nothing surpasses how surreal the floods of 1993 were for him.
“We were on the air for 30 hours straight,” Wilson said. “People were stopping by the station to give us food and water. They were depending on us to bring them updates. It was an amazing live moment.”
While predicting the forecast is never a 100 percent certainty, the three have, not surprisingly, earned the admiration of their peers.
“I think Ed is the best chief in the market because he tells it like it is,” said Jeriann Ritter, who also forecasts at WHO. “He doesn’t just say a chance of snow — he’ll tell you when it’s going to snow and how much we’re going to get. He stays up until all hours of the night making sure his forecast information is right.”
Chris Conoan, who joined WOI’s weather team on Feb. 23, believes their weather team is the best.
“Brad has a lot of experience and intuition that are blended into one,” he said. “In this business, you get the sense of two different types of broadcast meteorologists — the ones that are there to be on TV and aren’t focused on the forecast, and then the weather departments that live and breathe the weather. That’s WOI.”
Kurtis Gertz, who also forecasts at KCCI, says it’s a pleasure working with McLaughlin.
“John is the best television radar meteorologist in the country,” he said. “If a tornado is on the ground, I would trust my family’s safety to his assessment of the situation.”
Making a prediction
While there are many constants in life, Iowa weather is not one of them. All three meteorologists admit they are commonly asked, “When’s it going to warm up?” and “Can’t you do something about this weather?”
“The No. 1 thing I hear is, ‘Wow, I wish I could get paid for getting the weather wrong all the time,’” McLaughlin said. “There was a time when those types of comments annoyed me, but I’ve learned to let it roll off my shoulder.”
Although all three can be seen on separate channels, Edwards, McLaughlin and Wilson occasionally run into each other around the metro. The trio says it’s not uncommon to see each other on the golf course, at church (McLaughlin and Wilson attend the same one), the Iowa State Fair, weather conferences or even forecasting the weather at area football games on Friday evening.
“Sadly, our schedules are all similar so we don’t see each other that often,” Wilson said. “But we are all friends. And when it comes to weather, I would like to think we’re all friends, still. We just want to be at the top for forecasting.”
McLaughlin agrees, but admits there was some animosity between the weathermen early on in their careers.
“During the mid 1990s, there was tension between some of us,” he said. “Back then, we were young, and Ed and I thought we could get the best of each other on air. We would see who could make it on the air first, or see who could come closer to the correct temperature or how much snowfall we would get. Just like a lot of people during that age, we got a little fired up. We wanted to be the best.”
The future of forecasting
Still when severe weather strikes and “crap is about to hit the fan,” these weathermen want viewers to tune in to their broadcasts to see up-to-the-minute updates that can impact lives.
“Severe weather gives me an adrenaline rush,” Edwards said. “The great thing about my job is that the forecast is never the same. That’s what we’re here to do — to give central Iowa the most accurate forecast.”
McLaughlin and Wilson have similar thoughts.
“After 20 years, I’m still friends with Ed,” McLaughlin said. “Despite the TV Weather War, we can leave it at the door.”
Wilson says the TV Weather War debate will rage on.
“I equate the TV Weather Wars to the Olympics right now,” Wilson said. “You want to play for your team, and you want your team to win.” CV
caption: WOI Channel 5 Chief Meteorologist Brad Edwards says the station might not have the glitz and glam of other stations, but forecasting the weather is an equalizer. Photo courtesy of WOI
caption: While he says all three meteorologists are friends, WHO Channel 13 Chief Meteorologist Ed Wilson still believes there is controversy about which station provides central Iowans with the “Most Accurate Forecast.” Photo courtesy of WHO
caption: KCCI Channel 8 Chief Meteorologist John McLaughlin understands viewers have their own personal preference, but he hopes people tune into KCCI when serious weather is imminent. Photo courtesy of KCCI
